Football combines the two worst things about America: it is violence punctuated by committee meetings.
— George Will

In Week Eight of Year Five of the NFL’s Mediocre Period, the Chicago Bears — playing as tough as real bears in a slugfest with Brian Fantana — were favored by 16 points at home against the mediocre San Francisco 49ers. Confirming the wisdom of being too smart by half, I picked the 49ers to beat the spread. After a 41-0 halftime score in favor of the Midway Monsters, I concluded it was time to alter my football pool strategy.

For $40, a player gets a pick sheet for all 17 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs including the Super Bowl. Whoever picks the most games right in any one week wins $40. I’ve won once in three years — I picked New England to beat Philadelphia 24-21 in Super Bowl XXXIX. If not for Donovan McNabb’s girl scout-like constitution, my score would be a big zero. That’s a fine number if you’re testing ICBM interceptors, not when engaged in friendly gambling with co-workers.

If my 2006 pick sheet is like a car crash, this is a crash in Georgia during heavy fog and icy roads. I’ve never scored more than eight wins in one week. In Week Six, I picked only four games right. In Week Seven, only five. My disability of being a Bills fan contributes mightily. Over the course of the first seven Buffalo games, I’ve picked zero correctly. I’ve picked them to lose games they’ve won (Miami), win games they’ve lost (NY Jets, Detroit) and cover the spread only to get blown out (Chicago, New England). But I cannot foreswear my allegiance to the Bills. That’s like asking Flavor Flav not to look like a retarded baby. Impossible.

So, I need a mechanism that eliminates my faulty judgment about the NFL in general and my Ford-Family-to-Matt-Millen loyalty to the Bills in particular. What I need is the equivalent of a D.C. blue ribbon commission to devise a solution that a) can be totally ignored, or b) fail miserably but doesn’t make me look bad because it wasn’t my idea. This is what we call in Washington “Taking the keys away from the drunk, passing him a bong and telling him ‘Go sit on the couch for awhile.’”

In this holy holiday season, why not use vice and virtue to aid vice? Blasphemous? Perhaps. I’m a brave man willing to risk a lightening bolt in the arse. I’ll hitch my gambling star to the best and worst impluses of each NFL city. Who will help me more, lecherous murderers or studious anti-terrorism warriors? Wolverine or Spider-Man? Uncle Jesse or Danny Tanner? I’ll continue to follow the standard rules of the pool — point spreads are still in effect and the tiebreaker is the combined score of the Monday night game.

If this doesn’t work, I’m buying a monkey to select the winners by pooping in their helmets.

Week Nine

Senator Clinton and other New York pols stomped their feet and flared their nostrils earlier this year about Gotham (and Buffalo) receiving less federal homeland security funds in FY 2006 than FY 2005. It’s debatable that more money=better security (you only need to build a wall once, for example). But does more homeland security dollars=better football team? Week Nine will settle this age old debate (Age old=2003). I’ll select the winner in each game by whichever city received more FY 2006 Homeland Security Grant Program Urban Area Security Initiative dollars. Since 30 of 32 NFL cities received money (with Milwaukee counting towards the Packers and Memphis counts towards the Titans), it is a good fit. Victories are in bold.

Green Bay ($8.5 million) @ Buffalo ($3.7 million)
Pick — Green Bay (+3)
Result — Buffalo 24, Green Bay 10

Dallas ($13.8 million) @ Washington ($46.4 million)
Pick — Washington (+3)
Result — Washington 22, Dallas 19

Kansas City ($9.24 million) @ St. Louis ($9.2 million)
Pick — Kansas City (+2.5)
Result — Kansas City 31, St. Louis 17

Miami ($15.9 million) @ Chicago ($52.2 million)
Pick — Chicago (-13)
Result — Miami 31, Chicago 13

Atlanta ($18.66 million) @ Detroit ($18.63 million)
Pick — Atlanta (-5)
Result — Detroit 30, Atlanta 14

New Orleans ($4.6 million) @ Tampa Bay ($8.8 million)
Pick — Tampa Bay (+1)
Result — New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 14

Houston ($16.6 million) @ NY Giants ($124.4 million)
Pick — NY Giants (-13)
Result — NY Giants 14, Houston 10

Cincinnati ($4.6 million) @ Baltimore ($9.6 million)
Pick — Baltimore (-3)
Result — Baltimore 26, Cincinnati 20

Tennessee (Memphis, $4.2 million) @ Jacksonville ($9.2 million)
Pick — Jacksonville (-8.5)
Result — Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 7

Minnesota (Twin Cities, $ 4.3 million) @ San Francisco ($ 28.3 million)
Pick — San Francisco (+6)
Result — San Francisco 9, Minnesota 3

Denver ($4.3 million) @ Pittsburgh ($4.8 million)
Pick — Pittsburgh (-2)
Result — Denver 31, Pittsburgh 20

Cleveland ($4.7 million) @ San Diego ($7.9 million)
Pick — San Diego (-12.5)
Result — San Diego 32, Cleveland 25

New England (Boston, $18.2 million) @ Indianapolis ($4.3 million)
Pick — New England (-1)
Result — Indianapolis 27, New England 20

Oakland ($28.3 million) @ Seattle ($9.1 million)
Pick — Oakland (+8)
Result — Seattle 16, Oakland 0

Week Nine record — 5-9

Stupid Republicans giving more money to Boston than Indianapolis — why couldn’t they be stupidly corrupt to my benefit? Week Nine demonstrated our NFL teams are not up to meeting the security challenges presented by Islamic terrorism. If the Giants can’t blow out the Texans at home, how will they handling a self-detonating al Qaeda blowing up while on the road? And I’m fairly sure Art Shell can secure Oakland-area shrimp buffets, but heaven help their port facilities.

My reaction as a Bills fan — Thanks Brett Favre!
My reaction as a gambler — Thanks f---king Brett Favre.

Week Ten

The overall reduction in violent crime in the United States from early 1990’s rates is one of the great public policy success stories of the last 20 years. But violence remains an option for the crude and cruel and not all those individuals play football for the University of Miami. NFL players earn enough salary to live away from the high crime areas in their particular city. And other than J.P. Losman and Reggie Bush, I can’t think of too many players choosing city life over easily affordable suburbs. Does a city’s murder rate affect a team’s performance? (If I was McNabb, I’d walk with a guard through game day tailgates.) Week Ten will tell that tale. This week’s criteria — the 2004 murder and manslaughter rate for each NFL city (per 100,000 residents). Click here for the data. Whichever city plants more bodies under the turf, I’ll pick them to win. The numbers in parenthesis next to each city is the murder rate. Stay away from New Orleans and southeast D.C. If you manage to get killed in San Diego, well, shoelaces were probably too complicated a device for you anyway. Victories are in bold.

NY Jets (7.0) @ New England (Boston, 10.5)
Pick — New England (-10.5)
Result — NY Jets 17, New England 14

Houston (13.3) @ Jacksonville (13.1)
Pick — Houston (+10.5)
Result — Houston 13, Jacksonville 10

Green Bay (14.7) @ Minnesota (14.1)
Pick — Green Bay (+5.5)
Result — Green Bay 23, Minnesota 17

San Francisco (11.6) @ Detroit (42.1)
Pick — Detroit (-6)
Result — San Francisco 19, Detroit 13

Buffalo (17.9) @ Indianapolis (13.6)
Pick — Buffalo (+12) (Dammit)
Result — Indianapolis 17, Buffalo 16 (Close!)

San Diego (4.8) @ Cincinnati (20.1)
Pick — Cincinnati (+1)
Result — San Diego 49, Cincinnati 41

Cleveland (16.9) @ Atlanta (26.0)
Pick — Atlanta (-7.5)
Result — Cleveland 17, Atlanta 13

Kansas City (19.9) @ Miami (17.9)
Pick — Kansas City (-1.5)
Result — Miami 13, Kansas City 10

Washington (35.8) @ Philadelphia (22.2)
Pick — Washington (+7)
Result — Philadelphia 27, Washington 3

Baltimore (43.5) @ Tennessee (16.1)
Pick — Baltimore (-7)
Result — Baltimore 27, Tennessee 26

Denver (15.4) @ Oakland (20.6)
Pick — Oakland (+9)
Result — Denver 17, Oakland 13

St. Louis (33.7) @ Seattle (4.2)
Pick — St. Louis (+3.5)
Result — Seattle 24, St. Louis 22

New Orleans (56.0) @ Pittsburgh (13.8)
Pick — New Orleans (+4)
Result — Pittsburgh 38, New Orleans 31

Dallas (20.2) @ Arizona (14.1)
Pick — Dallas (-7)
Result — Dallas 27, Arizona 10

Chicago (15.5) @ NY Giants (7.0)
Pick — Chicago (+3)
Result — Chicago 38, NY Giants 20

Tampa Bay (9.2) @ Carolina (8.9)
Pick — Tampa Bay (+9)
Result — Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 10

Week Ten record — 7-9

NFL parity — and the Second Amendment — earned me some gains this week. Oakland and St. Louis know how to shoot straight off the field and just straight enough on to cover the spread. Avon Barksdale and the boys of West Baltimore gave me the right team, but Old Man McNair struggled to defeat the inferior Titans. Ray Lewis probably misplaced his spare clip. And it took until Week Ten, but I finally picked a Bills game correctly. They still lost. The Bills have not won a game by four points or less since their 3-13 campaign in 2001. Wow. That’s borderline retarded.

(Also among the multitude of statistics to cause Bills fans distress — Buffalo won 10 or more games a season for eight of 10 seasons from 1990 to 1999. This decade? One 9-7 season. No playoffs.)

Maybe Moorman saw a cheerleader fall out of her top. The rest of us saw something unpleasant, but definitely familiar.

Week Eleven

American futbol would be the manliest of North American sports if not for Shawn Kemp and his robo-loins. Still, second place is honorable. And after your favorite team wins an exhilarating game against their blood rival, who doesn’t want to run home, grab their lady by the hand and re-enact scenes from The Brown Bunny? But with sex comes consequences as as Mr. Valentine tells us. How much those consequences affect play is unknown, but we’ll try to come up with a working hypothesis. Thanks to the CDC we know the gonorrhea infection rate of all 32 NFL cities. I’ll pick to win the city that forgets how to use condoms the most. I’m a little surprised that St. Louis tops the list. Joe Buck, you dog.

The number in parenthesis next to each city is their 2004 gonorrhea infection rate per 100,000 residents. Go St. Louis!

And now, for no particular reason, your 2007 Stanley Cup Champions.

St. Louis (734.4) @ Carolina (259.6)
Pick — St. Louis (+9)
Result — Carolina 15, St. Louis 0

Atlanta (337.9) @ Baltimore (626.4)
Pick — Baltimore (-4.5)
Result — Baltimore 25, Atlanta 10

Minnesota (273.1) @ Miami (80.8)
Pick — Minnesota (+3.5)
Result — Miami 24, Minnesota 20

New England (173.8) @ Green Bay (339.6)
Pick — Green Bay (+6)
Result — New England 35, Green Bay 0

Oakland (113.3) @ Kansas City (611.1)
Pick — Kansas City (-9)
Result — Kansas City 17, Oakland 13

Buffalo (386.7) @ Houston (206.7)
Pick — Buffalo (+2.5)
Result — Buffalo 24, Houston 21

Tennessee (214.3) @ Philadelphia (351.9)
Pick — Philadelphia (-13)
Result — Tennessee 31, Philadelphia 13

Pittsburgh (121.2) @ Cleveland (239.3)
Pick — Cleveland (+3.5)
Result — Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20

Cincinnati (332.6) @ New Orleans (505.9)
Pick — New Orleans (-3.5)
Result — Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16

Chicago (356) @ NY Jets (136.3)
Pick — Chicago (-7)
Result — Chicago 10, NY Jets 0

Washington (455) @ Tampa Bay (111.5)
Pick — Washington (+3)
Result — Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17

Detroit (722.3) @ Arizona (86.8) Apparently Matt Leinhart is too busy studying the playbook.
Pick — Detroit (+2)
Result — Arizona 17, Detroit 10

Seattle (71.8) @ San Francisco (285)
Pick — San Francisco (No line)
Result — San Francisco 20, Seattle 14

Indianapolis (388.1) @ Dallas (257.1)
Pick — Indianapolis (-1)
Result — Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14

San Diego (81.2) @ Denver (233.6)
Pick — Denver (-3)
Result — San Diego 35, Denver 27

NY Giants (136.3) @ Jacksonville (248.9)
Pick — Jacksonville (-3.5)
Result — Jacksonville 26, NY Giants 10

Week Eleven record — 5-10-1

Hypothesis — Cheese Dick sucks and blows. I placed dead last in my pool, three games behind the woman sends in an entry for her twin toddler daughters. If not for the heroics of Losman and Peerless Price (how often do we say that?) my record would be even worse. And, wow! A victory by less than four points, is Losman clutch? Maybe. And if the Vikings had converted a two-point conversion on their final play against Miami to lose only by three, they’d have covered at +3.5.

Just another reason to hate the Dolphins.

Thanks to the groundskeepers at Giants Stadium for not painting “J-E-T-S” in the each end, leaving Chad Pennington and company unable to find each end zone and saving the Bears from Rex Grossman’s bad day. Still, I could have picked the Greatest Playoff Villains in Bills History (New York Giants, Washington, Dallas, Tennessee), and come real close to this week’s total.

Here’s one more. Nice hair.

Week Twelve

Central Connecticut State — home of the non-convicted in the court of public opinion Blue Devils — conducted this study of the best read American cities. They used six categories — booksellers, educational attainment, Internet resources, library resources, newspaper circulation and periodical publications. I tried getting similar data from Yale, but my SAT scores weren’t good enough.

After possibly misappropriated security dollars, gruesome murders and filthy sex, I’ll accentuate the positive. Whichever city is more literate, I’ll pick them win the game. The rankings are in parenthesis next to the city’s name (the lower score=more literate). Those in bold are best, as always. (Because of the Thanksgiving-shortened week, my pool waived the point spreads. Just straight up winners and losers this week.)

Miami (27.5) @ Detroit (56)
Pick — Miami
Result — Miami 27, Detroit 10

Tampa Bay (24.5) @ Dallas (48)
Pick — Tampa Bay
Result — Dallas 38, Tampa Bay 10

Denver (6) @ Kansas City (14)
Pick — Denver
Result — Kansas City 19, Denver 10

Pittsburgh (8) @ Baltimore (21)
Pick — Pittsburgh
Result — Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 0

Jacksonville (50) @ Buffalo (47)
Pick — Buffalo
Result — Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 24

Cincinnati (9.5) @ Cleveland (18)
Pick — Cincinnati
Result — Cincinnati 30, Cleveland 0

Chicago (46) @ New England (7)
Pick — New England
Result — New England 17, Chicago 13

San Francisco (5) @ St. Louis (15)
Pick — San Francisco
Result — St. Louis 20, San Francisco 17

New Orleans (42) @ Atlanta (4)
Pick — Atlanta
Result — New Orleans 31, Atlanta 13

Arizona (54) @ Minnesota (2)
Pick — Minnesota
Result — Minnesota 31, Arizona 26

Philadelphia (32.5) @ Indianapolis (23)
Pick — Indianapolis
Result — Indianapolis 45, Philadelphia 21

NY Giants (32.5) @ Tennessee (17)
Pick — Tennessee
Result — Tennessee 24, NY Giants 21

Carolina (20) @ Washington (3)
Pick — Washington
Result — Washington 17, Carolina 13

Houston (53) @ NY Jets (32.5)
Pick — NY Jets
Result — NY Jets 26, Houston 11

Oakland (30) @ San Diego (39)
Pick — Oakland
Result — San Diego 21, Oakland 14

Green Bay (29) @ Seattle (1)
Pick — Seattle
Result — Seattle 34, Green Bay 24

Week Twelve record — 10-6 (Season high!)

As the great philosopher once said, “Give a hoot. Read a book!” Eschewing gangbangers and whore sex earned me a six victory improvement from the previous week. (I’m sure eliminating the point spread had nothing to do with it. Ahem.) I spent this NFL football Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium enjoying the sunny skies with my father and my fiancée. The Bills somewhat surprising victory against Jacksonville mightily contributed to the pleasant day.

Willis McGahee scored shortly after this picture was taken.

I just returned from the urinal trough and stood at the top of the section in time to see Roscoe Parrish return a punt 82 yards for a touchdown. Plus, Buffalo kicked the game-winning field goal at our end of the field for a second-straight last minute victory by less than four points. Niiiicceee. (By the way, every time I go to a Bills game, I look for the most obscure Bills jersey. There were some solid candidates — Shane Conlan, Chris Spielman, Cookie Gilchrist — but the winner was a 70’s style jersey, #32, that read “Nordberg.” Evil and brilliant.)

Most of the picks weren’t too crazy, given the Era of Mediocrity (I think everyone should capitalize that). There’s no way I normally pick Oakland over San Diego regardless of spread, but Eli Manning and his crew obliged by promptly laying a fourth-quarter stink bomb in Nashville.

Finally, a Music City Miracle I can support.

I was disappointed with my experiment, however. I hoped to discover a revolutionary nexus between social trends, point spreads and the NFL. All I discovered was another method of killing time at work. Not quite the polio vaccine, but way better than a singing fish.

I guess it’s time for Plan B. Does anybody know where I can buy bran flakes for monkeys?

Questions? Comments? The Spread? E-mail me at mlucinski@yahoo.com.

Michael Lucinski lives, loves and works in the Washington, D.C. area. He’s a graduate of the University at Buffalo and the George Washington University. Maybe subjective criteria like “Hottest cheerleaders” would be better for Week Fourteen.